Theme of the Day: Copper Mine Capacity Growth Accelerating - ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released the latest Edition of its biannual Directory of Copper Mines, Smelters and Refineries. In the period 2024 to 2028, world copper mine capacity is expected to grow at an average rate of around 3.3% per year.Low growth in mine production capacity of around 1%/year was seen over 2017-2020 as no major copper mine projects were commissioned with the exception of Cobre Panama.The postponement of projects and expansions over the last few years due to unfavourable trends in capital expenditure and delays in project development, mainly as a result of the time required for project permitting, shifted new capacity forward. In part, this led to an agglomeration of major new projects and expansions starting in the period 2021-2024.The major new projects starting in 2024 are expansions of operating mines (Kamoa and Tenke/KFM) and in 2025, the Malmyzhskoye mine is expected to come on stream.Over the period 2024 to 2028, through new projects and expansions, world mine capacity is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% per year: The average annual growth over the period 2024-2025 is about 3.7% with a lower average growth of 3.1% over 2026-2028,Capacity growth over 2026-2028 is expected to be mainly sustained by the start-up of smaller mine projects/expansions compared to the major projects that started in 2021-2024 period.Copper mine projects continue to be delayed by permitting or ESG issues.Capacity development linked to Chinese overseas investments, mainly in Africa, continues.Interest by governments and private companies in seabed minerals (including copper) exploration is increasing.Beyond 2028, a significant number of copper mine projects are currently being evaluated and, when developed, will boost the long-term availability of copper which in turn will support efforts to achieve current ambitious net zero targets. In addition, recycling will need to be incentivized as a complement to primary output. It is therefore clear that, in future, constructive cooperation between governments, industry and local communities will be essential.