Theme of the Day: Consensus price forecasts – Gold prices at new high, base metals retreat in Jul

S&P Global Commodity Insights discusses consensus price forecasts for industrial and precious metals, including platinum group metals, amid broader market trends. Gold prices hit a new high in Jul after the Fed's dovish comments and, more recently, weaker US jobs data kindled optimism of a forthcoming interest rate cut. Investors' flight to safety amid continuing geopolitical tensions drove additional demand support, resulting in upgrades to gold price forecasts. Although supply surplus and lagging demand recovery weighed on base metals prices, US rate cut expectations fuelled anticipation of improved industrial demand that helped drive an upside bias for price outlooks.Consensus price forecasts for gold have been raised 1.7% for 2024 and 2.5% on average for 2025–28. Silver price expectations are more bullish, with targets upgraded by an average 2.4% in 2024–25 and 4.6% for the remainder of the forecast horizon. Growing confidence in the likelihood of a US rate cut is fuelling the upside momentum, which is supported by silver's robust industrial demand outlook, driven by its applications in automobiles, solar panels and electronics. Platinum and palladium prices moved almost at parity in the price per ounce range between $900 and $1,000 throughout Jul. Consensus price targets have been downgraded for both metals, with palladium forecasts lowered by a relatively more significant 1.1% on average for 2024–28, compared to a 0.7% cut for platinum.US rate cut expectations, energy-transition demand and an improvement in China demand — as it works to meet its economic growth target — support an upgrade of 1.1% on average to copper consensus price outlooks over the five-year forecast horizon. Nickel consensus price forecasts are up an average 1.0% in 2024–28, helped by expectations of US rate cuts, combined with prospects of a near-term weakness in plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales, giving way to support from the growing uptake of nickel-intensive battery chemistries. The LME 3M zinc price reached above $3,000/t 5 Jul, bolstered by an enduring concentrate shortfall. Consensus price targets are up 1.7% on average in 2024–26. A stronger seaborne supply response expected with the Simandou project in Guinea starting in 2026 has helped cap the upside for consensus price targets for iron ore, which are 0.4% higher on average for the five-year forecast horizon. Although oversupply and falling prices have led to mine closures and withdrawn projects, China-led investments in Indonesia, Zimbabwe and DRC — where CMOC Group Ltd.'s Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines reached production milestones — have maintained elevated production levels. Cobalt consensus price forecasts were lowered an average 2.2% for 2024–28.