metals daily (EN)

This MorningBase metals traded in a tight range since LME closing last night. Copper fell by 0.2%, and aluminum dropped 0.2%, while nickel edged up 0.2%. Lead gained 0.1%, tin was nearly unchanged, and zinc declined the most, down 0.4%. Overall, price movements were minimal.

What's Moving Markets?Global equities were mixed after President Trump noted that Iran contacted the US about the possibility of resuming negotiation, spurring bets that its conflict with Israel may de-escalate. Trump noted that it is not too late to re-establish talks but still claimed that the US seeks the complete surrender of Tehran. Iran and Israel exchanged fire for a sixth day, with speculation now centring on whether Donald Trump will resort to one of the game-changing weapons at his disposal. The Massive Ordnance Penetrator, better known as the bunker-buster bomb, could deliver a knockout blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Energy markets remained on edge as tensions in the Middle East rose. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 3bp to 4.37%, while the USD index was slightly weaker at 98.6.· Donald Trump has made his most explicit comments yet about possible US military action against Iran, saying that the next week would be “very big” in determining the course of the war between Israel and the Islamic republic. Speaking after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Washington of “irreparable damage” if it intervened, Trump suggested Tehran wanted to negotiate but had left it perilously late. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he said after receiving a Situation Room briefing on the conflict.

Fed keeps rates steady, still sees two rate cuts by year end. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting in Jun 2025, in line with expectations, as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of President Trump’s policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation. Officials also noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated. Policymakers are still pricing in two rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the Fed revised down its GDP growth projections for 2025 (1.4% vs 1.7% seen in Mar) and 2026 (1.6% vs 1.8%) but kept its forecasts for 2027 unchanged at 1.8%. The unemployment rate is seen higher at 4.5% for both this year and next (vs 4.4% and 4.3% respectively). Meanwhile, PCE inflation is expected to reach 3% in 2025 (vs 2.7%) before falling to 2.4% in 2026 (vs 2.2%) and to 2.1% in 2027 (2%).

Base metals ended marginally higher as Trump maintained his hawkish tone on Iran but noted that Tehran asked for talks. Nickel fell below the $15,000 level, as output cuts from Indonesia were not enough to counter the view of an oversupplied market. The Indonesian government reduced nickel mining quotas by 120Mt to 150Mt this year, cutting global supply by 35% from current levels. This was due the surge of Chinese smelting projects in Indonesia after the latter prohibited the export of nickel ores in 2020. Indonesia was the host of 44 nickel smelting operations as of Sep, compared with four 10 years prior. Fastmarkets’ copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific calculated at $(64.00)/t on 13 Jun, down from $(62.90)/t on 6 Jun — a reversal from positive levels above $88/t in Sep 2023. Tariff-induced demand worries and pockets of oversupply weighed on consensus price expectations for industrial metals.

Silver reached a fresh 13-year high above $37, while gold remained stuck below $3,400 — highlighting a yellow metal that continues to consolidate, leaving it rangebound for now. Focus remains on the Middle East, US economic data, and the timing of the next US interest rate cut. The National Bank of Kazakhstan increased its gold reserves by 7t in May, lifting YTD net purchases to 15t. Total gold reserves now stand at 299t. Platinum prices surged to over $1,300, hitting a four-year high and extending a 41% YTD rally. The bullish trend is driven by tight supply, rising jewellery restocking, structural deficits, and stronger investor sentiment post-London Platinum Week. Appetite for safe-haven assets continued to bolster the consensus price outlook for gold in 2025–26.