Metals Daily

This MorningAluminium, tin and zinc all gained around 1%. Copper is showing a little plus of 0.5% so far. Nickel remained pretty much unchanged, only lead dipped a little bit on this Wednesday morning. What's Moving Markets?Global stocks extended their gains amid hopes that the US may move to de-escalate its trade war with China. Reports indicated that Treasury Secretary Bessent expects the trade war between the US and China to de-escalate since current tariffs are unsustainable, stoking hopes that the White House may go back on its decision to place 145% levies on China. President Trump is doing his best at undermining the independence of the Fed prompting demand for haven assets. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were unchanged at 4.40%, while the USD index was 0.5% stronger at 98.8.The IMF has cut its outlook for global growth by half a point to 2.8% this year and trimmed its prediction for 2026 to 3%. This is a slowdown from 2024’s rate of 3.3%, as the IMF warns of the “major negative shock” of rising trade barriers. The IMF’s central forecast was that the US and global economies would avoid recession this year, after entering 2025 with firm momentum. But the probability of a recession in the US had increased to nearly 40%, compared with 25% in its previous World Economic Outlook. The fund lowered its growth forecast for the US to 1.8% in 2025 — down from its previous forecast of 2.7% — and 1.7% in 2026. That still leaves the country as the fastest-growing G7 economy this year and next, but it is sharply below America’s 2.8% expansion in 2024. China is also set for a slowdown, with the IMF predicting expansion of 4% this year and next, compared with 5% in 2024.Gold surged to a fresh all-time high near $3,500 overnight, a 7.7% gain in the last week alone and up 33% YTD, on US economic stability concerns as Trump continues to challenge the independence of the Fed, calling for Chair Powell to be sacked and rates to be cut, conveniently making him the scapegoat of an incoming US economic slowdown if he doesn't. Profit taking emerged after mid the first signs of rhetoric against tariffs by the US. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly stated that the ongoing tariff standoff against China is unsustainable, adding that he expects the trade war to de-escalate. The rapid recent gain has stretched some technical metrics – the 14-day RSI - a gauge of the pace and intensity of moves - topped 79, above the level of 70 that suggests the rally is due for a pause. Gold's phenomenal safe-haven/FOMO/momentum-driven rally has left other metals looking ordinary, not least silver as it now trades at the cheapest level to gold since 2020. Slow to rise and rapid to fall, silver does not follow the gold narrative at all. The relative abundance of silver to gold in the ground is 14:1 which should be reflected in the price differential, which is 104:1, suggesting either gold is massively over-priced, or silver significantly underpriced. COT data on commodities covering the week to 15 Apr: gold, which saw its record run being met by net selling, while silver's near 9% jump only attracted a modest buying response from rattled traders following the post-Liberation Day slump.Base metals ended stronger, with copper and tin leading the charge higher. Spot copper concentrates TC/RCs fell further into negative territory, now at -$47.6/t from -$42.50/t a week prior, another record low. Indonesia will delay the proposed increase in the nickel royalty in late Apr due to uncertainties posed by tariffs and domestic pushbacks from miners and smelters, according to an official filing signed by the president on 11 Apr.Iron ore hovered below the $100/t mark despite the broad risk-on sentiment.