Theme of the Day: Consensus price forecasts – US-China trade pact lifts industrial metals prices

A temporary deferral of steep US-China trade tariffs renewed demand optimism across industrial metals markets in May, but the upside was limited by lingering concerns over the impacts of still-evolving trade dynamics on global economic growth prospects, said S&P Global Market Intelligence. Gold prices retreated from recent highs as trade risks thawed but remained elevated as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continued to drive investors' flight to safety. Appetite for safe-haven assets continued to bolster the consensus price outlook for gold in 2025–26, while tariff-induced demand worries and pockets of oversupply weighed on price expectations for industrial metals.After months of escalation, trade tensions between the US and China partially eased as the world's two largest economies reached an agreement on 12 May to temporarily back down from aggressive "reciprocal" tariffs for a period of 90 days. China has expanded efforts to stimulate its domestic economy amid mounting trade challenges. The PBoC announced 6 May that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks for the first time since Sep 2024 and reduce housing loan rates.Consensus target prices for gold have been upgraded 1.5% on average for the 2025–28 period and downgraded 0.1% for 2029. Silver consensus price forecasts have been adjusted 0.6% higher on average across 2025–28 and 0.3% lower for 2029. Market tightness is limiting the downside for the platinum consensus price estimates, which have been lowered 0.5% on average for the 2025–29 period. Meanwhile, the palladium price largely moved below $1,000/oz in May, and consensus price targets have been downgraded 1.1% on average over the five-year forecast horizon.Consensus price forecasts for copper have been downgraded 0.3% on average for 2025–28 and adjusted 3.0% higher for 2029. Consensus price outlooks for zinc were lowered 0.2% on average for the five-year forecast horizon. Consensus price expectations for nickel have been downgraded 0.2% on average for 2025–29. Consensus price forecasts for aluminium have been downgraded 0.2% on average for 2025–27. Consensus price outlooks for iron ore have been upgraded 0.4% for 2025 but downgraded 0.3% on average for 2026–29. The cobalt consensus price target is 0.2% lower for 2025 and unchanged for 2026–29.