Metals Daily

What's Moving Markets?Global equities were mixed, as investors monitored trade developments and prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed that 1 Aug remains a “hard deadline” for implementing new tariffs, though he signalled that negotiations with trade partners are still ongoing. Stronger than expected economic data boosted sentiment across industrial metals. The energy market fell amid concerns of rising supplies. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 6bp to 4.36%, while the USD index was 0.7% weaker at 97.8.Commodity demand globally has remained resilient so far in 2025, said BHP. That resilience largely reflects China’s ongoing ability to grow its overall export base despite a significant decline in exports to the USA, and its ability to deliver robust domestic demand despite the dislocation in the property sector. Copper and steel demand have benefited from a sharp acceleration in renewable energy investment, electricity grid build out, strong machinery exports and EV sales. While slower economic growth and a fragmenting trading system remain potential headwinds, stimulus efforts by China and the USA would help to mitigate the near-term impact. Going forward, China’s 15th 5-year plan is likely to provide more visibility on policies to sustain longer-term growth and development.Precious metals led by platinum rallied, as a weakening USD and falling Treasury yields fuelled safe-haven demand amid mounting trade tensions. Gold inched towards the $3,400 mark, with traders pricing in around a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in Sep, amid growing speculation over potential leadership changes at the Fed and a broader reshaping of the institution. Implied lease rates for borrowing physical platinum rose again last week, indicating that there is less liquidity in parts of the market. Part of what may be driving this is a geographic misalignment of stocks and demand. Helping to offset tightness until last week, platinum ETFs also liquidated 285koz of holdings since the platinum price first reached $1,300. By contrast, palladium ETF holdings exceeded 900koz last week – a seven-year high. YTD, holdings are now up 19%.Base metals edged higher with sentiment boosted by the announcement out of China of the plans for a new $170bn hydro dam on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet. This will obviously draw a huge demand for metals (base and ferrous) in its production. It may also signify a shift in clean energy production out of China moving forward as the dam has the capacity to produce 300bn kilo-watt hours of energy per year. Copper concentrate treatment charges registered their 3rd consecutive weekly increase on 18 Jul, with market participants reporting no major impact from road blockades in Peru’s key copper route. Codelco said US tariffs are causing anxiety as the $250bn industry awaits details of proposed levies on the metal less than two weeks before they are due to kick in. President Donald Trump this month said he would impose a 50% tariff on copper from 1 Aug but did not clarify if this would apply to the refined metal, semi-finished products or copper ore. Miners and industrial users have questions over the timing and nature of the tariffs. BHP said commodity demand had “remained resilient so far in 2025”, with copper benefiting from China’s accelerated investment in renewable energy and EV sales. BHP said it expected economic stimulus efforts in the US and China to help mitigate “slower economic growth and a fragmenting trading system”.Iron ore prices hovered around the $100/t mark on improving China growth sentiment. Optimism around improving steel mill margins after Beijing indicated its intention to remove overcapacity boosted sentiment.