Theme of the Day: Copper and Nickel in surplus in 2026 and 2027

**International Copper Study group (ICSG)** - 2026 world mine production growth was revised down to 1.3% from the 1.6% anticipated in the Group’s Apr 2026 forecasts, mainly reflecting downward revisions made for Chilean, Chinese and Indonesian production. A higher growth of about 3.1% is forecast for 2027, supported by the continued ramp-up of new/expanded capacity in a number of countries, an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output and a continued recovery of operational rates in Indonesia and the DRC. - In 2026, world refined copper production is expected to rise by a modest 0.4%. Although global refined production will continue to benefit from new and ramp-up capacity, primary electrolytic refined production is expected to decline as a result of constrained availability of concentrates, partially offsetting growth in SX-EW and secondary (from scrap) output. In 2027, global refined output is forecast to grow by 3.4%, supported by the ramp up of smelters/refineries in Indonesia, India and the EU; expected improvement of operating rates in Chile; and expansion of SX-EW and secondary production capacity. - Global refined usage growth for 2026 is now anticipated to be 1.5%. Chinese apparent usage is expected to rise by 2.5%, and usage in the rest of the world is anticipated to remain essentially unchanged. China’s share of world refined copper usage is currently 59%. In 2027, world refined copper usage is expected to increase by 2.5%, supported by recovery in world economic growth, planned startup and expansion of semis plants in a number of countries and an expected improvement in semis plant operating rates in the Middle East. - For 2026, a surplus of about 104,000t is expected, slightly higher than the 96,000t anticipated at the Group’s Apr 2026 forecast. ICSG currently expects the market to present a higher surplus of about 368,000t in 2027, in line with the Apr 2026 forecast.  **International Nickel Study Group (INSG)** - The World Stainless Association reported that global stainless steel melt shop production grew 5% YoY in H126. INSG expects the stainless steel sector to expand further in H226 and through 2027. Worldwide electric vehicle sales are likely to grow only modestly in 2026, with a recovery expected in 2027. Nickel's role in the battery market has also grown more gradually than anticipated, as it faces competition from lithium iron phosphate chemistries. - World primary nickel production was 3.589Mt in 2024 and 3.875Mt in 2025 and is forecast to reach 3.868Mt in 2026 (-0.18%) and 4.071Mt in 2027 (+5.2%). The estimates do not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions. - World primary nickel usage was 3.473Mt in 2024 and 3.577Mt in 2025 and is forecast to increase to 3.849Mt in 2026 (+7.6%) and to 4.002Mt in 2027 (+4%). - The implicit market balances are therefore surpluses of 116kt in 2024, 299kt in 2025, 19kt in 2026, and 70kt in 2027.